The Phillies' lineup strategy is a puzzle, and the key piece might be who stands between Bryce Harper and the pitcher! Spring training is often a time for experimentation, and the Phillies are no exception. Their early games, including the Grapefruit League opener against the AL champion Blue Jays and a home game against the Pirates, will feature a fluid mix of seasoned players, non-roster invitees, and promising prospects. This shuffling will continue until the final games in Florida, especially as players depart for the World Baseball Classic.
But the real intrigue lies in two questions: Where will Bryce Harper bat, and perhaps more crucially, who will be positioned directly before and after him in the batting order? Harper himself acknowledges the fluidity, stating, "I mean, we switch it so much that I’m not really sure, lefty and righty... I don’t know. I mean, when we get to that point and we have that conversation, you guys will know."
This focus on Harper's lineup spot isn't random; it stems from his 2025 season, which he himself described as not "elite." A significant factor might be the pitches he saw in the strike zone – only 43 percent of the time, the lowest among 532 players with at least 200 pitches seen. In the postseason, this number dipped even further to 39.1 percent, ranking him 83rd out of 84 players with at least 50 pitches seen. Manager Rob Thomson is dedicating these next few weeks to finding solutions.
But here's where it gets controversial: Harper has previously suggested that it doesn't matter who hits behind him because pitchers rarely throw him strikes anyway. This has been a consistent theme, even during his MVP seasons. In 2015, his in-zone rate was 40.5 percent, and in 2021, it was 44.9 percent.
Harper believes that having a strong hitter in the cleanup spot makes a significant difference in the pitches he sees. "I think it makes a huge impact in the four spot," he explained. "I mean, I think anybody. It doesn’t matter if it’s me or Schwarbs, because if Schwarbs is sitting there the same thing is gonna happen. So I think the four spot is a huge impact. I think the numbers in the four spot weren’t very good last year for our whole team. I think whoever’s in that four spot is gonna have a big job to do, depending on who’s hitting three or who’s hitting two."
For Opening Day, Alec Bohm is the most probable cleanup hitter, though Thomson has also mentioned Adolis García and J.T. Realmuto as possibilities.
And this is the part most people miss: Interestingly, Harper's best offensive numbers last year occurred when Bohm was hitting behind him. Let's look at the data:
- Schwarber (195 PA): .261 BA / .455 SLG / 12.8% walk rate / 41.9% in-zone rate
- Realmuto (176 PA): .259 BA / .500 SLG / 8.5% walk rate / 44.2% in-zone rate
- Bohm (105 PA): .300 BA / .556 SLG / 13.3% walk rate / 42.2% in-zone rate
- Nick Castellanos (62 PA): .246 BA / .509 SLG / 8.1% walk rate / 45.3% in-zone rate
However, there's a growing body of evidence suggesting that hitters benefit more from the protection ahead of them than behind them. Indeed, Harper saw slightly more pitches in the zone when hitting behind Schwarber (43.6 percent) compared to when Schwarber hit behind him (42.5 percent). This could be because pitchers feel more pressure to throw strikes when runners are already on base.
This phenomenon has been evident for Harper since he joined the Phillies:
- Bases empty: .267 BA / .361 OBP / .502 SLG / .863 OPS
- With baserunner(s): .300 BA / .416 OBP / .558 SLG / .975 OPS
So, will better protection in the lineup elevate Harper's performance this year? The Phillies have a few weeks to figure it out. Kyle Schwarber commented on the team's approach: "What [Thomson’s] trying to write down is going to be the best way for us to go out there and win a baseball game and score runs and keeping constant pressure on people. I bet you there’s going to be that conversation coming soon." Schwarber, ever the team player, is unfazed by his own spot: "It doesn’t really matter."
In many respects, he's probably right. But does the specific placement of hitters like Bohm or Realmuto behind Harper truly unlock his full potential, or is the issue of pitchers avoiding the strike zone a more fundamental challenge that no lineup adjustment can fully solve? What are your thoughts on the impact of lineup protection? Let us know in the comments below!
